Challenges around effective sufficiency and provision for children and young people should be near the top of the next government’s priorities as it takes office at the end of this week. Local areas all over the country are grappling with ever-increasing demand for Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) support and growing numbers of children and young people with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) and the statutory override on the treatment of Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) deficits, which expires in March 2026, should not be used as a reason to delay major systemic reforms.
We were delighted to speak to Paul Senior, a respected leader who is leaving a real mark as he fronts and shapes education system policy and strategy alongside mainstream and SEND partnerships and provision. With a keen eye for innovation and an unwavering dedication to the betterment of children’s futures, Paul has faced both complex challenges across the national education landscape as well as spearheading initiatives to address London-specific issues.
So, Paul, you have worked as a senior leader in education for several local authorities across the UK, as well as national government organisations. What are the common challenges you have seen and how are they impacting operations?
In the world of local government, the challenges are all similar in terms of councils and their partners such as schools facing increasing demand and complexity of needs in addition to budgetary pressures – local government organisations are having to do more with less in response to the needs of their local communities. One of the biggest challenges in the education system today is the increased growth, demand, and complexity of need in the SEND, which has increased exponentially since the implementation of the SEND reforms in 2014.
The ambitions and objectives of the 2014 SEND reforms – with a focus on improving outcomes for children, young people, and families with SEND – was without doubt the right direction of travel, with a focus on the child-centred approach, in particular increasing the age remit. Prior to these reforms, the focus was on children aged 5 to 16, but now it encompasses children and young people with SEND from birth up to 25 years old, covering education, health, and care.
How has this broader age range impacted the system?
The principle behind extending the statutory school age to 0-25 is positive from a family and user perspective. It improves early identification, intervention, and prevention, allowing children to be supported both earlier and longer if their needs are complex. However, the system has never been funded properly based on the full extent of needs. Most local authorities’ high-needs DSGs are overspent and overstretched in meeting local needs. This challenge, along with the associated statutory override from the Department for Education (DfE) due to end in 2026, exposes councils to significant further financial vulnerability. Some authorities have received additional resources from DfE through the work of the Safety Valve and more recently the Developing Better Value (DBV) programmes, but this comes with agreements to redesign their local delivery models for long-term solutions which remain unclear. Nationally, the data suggests that the SEND education system is several billion pounds overspent, which indicates a severe supply shortage and increasing demand issue.
We need to think differently through a system-wide lens to consider how we can most efficiently and effectively meet the needs of children and young people with SEND. Interestingly, during my time as a director in the Scottish education system, I observed that since 2014, the demand for specialist provision in Scotland had only increased by 3% compared to 70% in England over the same period. This prompts us to reflect on Scotland’s approach, suggesting there could be merit in strengthening the capacity of the maintained school sector in response to pupil SEND needs. I observed from my time working with Scottish councils that Scotland has an incredibly strong focus on decentralisation when progressing inclusion, prioritising inclusive schools, and allocating funding to build capacity and capability within these schools. This strategy reduces the need for more special schools and reduces the use of independent non-maintained sector outside of the home locality of many children with SEND.
That certainly sounds like a huge challenge for SEND. And what about in the world of mainstream education?
A big challenge for many London authorities, as well as other city councils outside of London, is falling mainstream pupil numbers. This issue is multifactorial, mainly linked to lower birth rates, the impact of Brexit, and the affordability of housing and accommodation. Local authorities have been working with schools to reduce their Published Admission Numbers (PAN) and mixing year groups to cut costs, but these solutions are not sustainable.
London areas such as Hackney have 22% surplus seats in the primary school system; ideally, there should only be around 5%. This is a new challenge, as in the past we had to increase school places to meet rising demand. Now, we have to make tough decisions as more people move out of city areas.
This has a knock-on effect in the SEND space, as mainstream schools receive funding in relation to pupil numbers which they can use to make reasonable adjustments to be Disability Discrimination Act (DDA) compliant to meet the needs of more children who would otherwise be placed in expensive special schools. However, with falling pupil numbers, overall funding is decreasing. As a result, we will struggle to keep all children with SEND and complex needs in their local maintained or special schools.
Is taking a systems approach to these challenges important?
Absolutely, it’s essential. For instance, I recently organised a Pan-London directors’ event, also attended by DfE, Ofsted and Diocese representatives, to address falling mainstream pupil numbers. By bringing together directors, leaders, and senior officers across London, we can work collaboratively rather than in competition. This approach fosters a culture of collaboration and joint working, which is crucial in densely populated areas like London where cross-border issues are prevalent.
In some local authority areas, secondary schools have already closed, along with several primary schools. Neighbouring authorities are also considering closing secondary schools after having already closed primary schools. In the authority I am currently in, we will see several primary school closures this summer as well. So, we examined how we can collaborate to address the issue of declining mainstream pupil numbers.
We managed to bring together key decision-makers from across London. Following that event, we are compiling a report and will be discussing it with ministers, as it must influence policy change.
That collaborative approach seems vital. How does forecasting play a role in managing these challenges?
Forecasting is crucial. We need to plan for the next 5-10 years by understanding the needs of our communities.
Recently, my teams have been extensively analysing housing data. According to Greater London Authority (GLA) data for the next 5-10 years, more families are expected to move out of London, with fewer people moving in the other direction. Those who do move into the city are likely to be single individuals or professional couples without children. The high cost of housing is a significant issue, as many people cannot afford to live in city areas.
Effective place shaping and planning, along with collaboration with social care and health services as well as colleagues in housing and the voluntary and community sectors, are key to managing this complexity.
Thinking about your job specifically, what makes a successful leader in this space?
Leadership is always dependent on context and will mean different things to different people. I’m fortunate that in my current role with the London Borough of Hackney, as the Director of Education, I have the benefit of working with and being supported by a richness of exceptional talent in local schools and settings, who lead on securing outstanding outcomes for Hackney’s children and young people.
Close to 99% of Hackney’s schools are rated good or outstanding, with outcomes across all key stages amongst the best in class nationally. Across the Council, the talent pool is deep with enabled and empowered leaders being ‘obsessed’ with improving outcomes and quality of practice, underpinned by a relationships-based practice approach and a call to service. In the world of local government, successful leadership often can be about recruiting the right people, treating them right and training them right. You have to create the right environment which allows all colleagues to be able to bring their ‘A game’ to work every day in response to the needs of our residents and constituents.
At 31ten, we work with councils to enable big picture thinking and deliver transformational change. If you’d like to speak to us about this work or want to plan for the future, please feel free to reach out to Rahul Rana on rahul.rana@31tenconsulting.co.uk. We will be publishing a full report on our findings on what’s next for local government in Summer 2024.