Recent coverage in The Guardian highlights a trend local authorities and colleges have been quietly managing for several years: falling birth rates are now translating into surplus school places. In London, this is particularly acute. Rolls are declining, funding is tightening, and yet the cost of maintaining under-occupied buildings remains stubbornly high.
This is not a short-term fluctuation. Over the past 12 months, multiple reports (including the National Audit Office, Greater London Authority (GLA) school roll projections, London Councils intelligence, Department for Education (DfE) statistics and forecasts, and Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis) have pointed to sustained declines in primary pupil numbers across the capital, driven by lower birth rates, rising housing costs, and shifting demographics. The result is a growing mismatch between education infrastructure built for yesterday’s demand and today’s reality.
For councils, MATs (Multi Academy Trusts) and FE (Further Education) providers, this creates a difficult tension:
- Protect vital education and community services
- Maintain financial sustainability
- Make best use of public assets
- Navigate politically and socially sensitive decisions
In simple terms, standing still and doing nothing isn’t really an option anymore – planning the right next steps now will help create positive, lasting outcomes that better support the needs of the wider community.
From surplus places to strategic opportunity
The risk is that falling rolls are treated purely as a cost reduction exercise, closing sites or reducing provision. The opportunity is much broader.
Underused education estates can become platforms for:
- Early years and Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) provision
- Community and health services
- Affordable and key worker housing
- Skills and employment hubs
- Climate-aligned redevelopment
But unlocking this requires robust evidence, clear options, and confident decision-making—areas where many organisations are under pressure.
What this looks like in practice
We recently supported a London borough review of maintained schools at a time of declining demand and financial strain. Rather than taking a site-by-site view, we delivered a portfolio-level options appraisal, combining:
- Financial modelling over 40 years
- Strategic alignment with borough priorities
- Detailed site assessments (condition, demand, community need)
Using our proptech tool Vestega, we tested a full range of scenarios from retaining provision, or meanwhile opportunities, to repurposing or disposal, quantifying both financial and social value.
The outcome was not a blanket closure programme, but a balanced, evidence-led strategy: retaining some sites, repurposing others, and releasing those where value could be reinvested into priority services.
A similar challenge is playing out in further education. Our work with New City College focused on a large and complex campus estate facing shifting learner demand.
Here, the question was how the estate could actively support future curriculum, growth and financial resilience. We developed an asset strategy that aligned estate decisions with education outcomes, demographics and long-term investment planning.
What organisations need now
At 31ten, we are excited to see the DfE’s new estates strategy and decision-making framework in Autumn 2026, but it is already apparent across London and beyond that three capabilities are becoming critical:
- Portfolio-level thinking – Individual site decisions are rarely optimal in isolation. The answer sits in how the whole estate works together.
- Integrated financial and social modelling – Decisions must balance viability with impact, understanding revenue pressures, capital value, and community outcomes together.
- Confidence to act – Perhaps most importantly, leaders need clear, defensible evidence to make difficult decisions in a highly scrutinised environment.
How 31ten and Vestega can help
At 31ten, we specialise in turning complex estate challenges into clear, deliverable strategies. Through Vestega, we bring rapid, scenario-based land and asset modelling into the heart of decision-making.
Together, this means we can:
- Quantify the impact of falling rolls across an estate
- Test realistic options—from retention to transformation
- Align estate strategies with wider policy goals (housing, net zero, health)
- Build robust business cases to unlock funding and approvals
Falling pupil numbers are not just an education issue; they are a place-shaping opportunity. Those who respond strategically have an opportunity to reshape public assets around future need, rather than past demand. We don’t need to wait for the new estates strategy to act. Authorities and education organisations can move now to build a clear evidence base, test early options and scenarios, align estates with service needs, identify quick wins and establish the case for change. In a fast-moving environment, the advantage lies with those who begin shaping their estate now incrementally, intelligently, and with clear evidence.
If you would like to get in touch to see how we can help, please contact Bernie (Principal Consultant) on bernie.lally@31tenconsulting.co.uk.